Influenza Forecasting Framework based on Gaussian Processes

Authors: Christoph Zimmer, Reza Yaesoubi

ICML 2020 | Conference PDF | Archive PDF | Plain Text | LLM Run Details

Reproducibility Variable Result LLM Response
Research Type Experimental We compare our framework to several state of the art benchmarks and show competitive performance. We, therefore, believe that our GP based framework for seasonal epidemics forecasting will play a key role for future influenza forecasting and, lead to further research in the area.
Researcher Affiliation Collaboration 1Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence, Renningen, Germany 2Health Policy and Management, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, USA.
Pseudocode Yes Algorithm 1 Seasonal Epidemics Forecasting
Open Source Code No The paper mentions using the GPML package but does not state that the code for their proposed framework is open-source or provide a link to it.
Open Datasets Yes We use the official CDC data on influenza-like illness (ILI) as data source (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, a).
Dataset Splits Yes We use the seasons 2003/04 – 2007/08 as training data and the seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12 as validation data to determine appropriate feature sets I of previous weeks for the training data.
Hardware Specification No The paper does not specify any hardware used for running the experiments.
Software Dependencies Yes We use Matlab 2016a and the GPML package (Rasmussen & Nickisch, 2019) for training Gaussian processes and predictions.
Experiment Setup Yes We use the seasons 2003/04 – 2007/08 as training data and the seasons 2010/11 and 2011/12 as validation data to determine appropriate feature sets I of previous weeks for the training data. We use various sets I (with up to five past weeks as features, I {i − 4, i − 3, . . . , i }) and choose the best three performing sets to become part of the ensemble as stated in Algorithm 1. We perform 1-4 week forecasts and therefore, end up with a total of 7 seasons, 29 weeks per season and 4 targets is in the order of minutes with our framework.