Preventing Arbitrage from Collusion When Eliciting Probabilities

Authors: Rupert Freeman, David M. Pennock, Dominik Peters, Bo Waggoner1958-1965

AAAI 2020 | Conference PDF | Archive PDF | Plain Text | LLM Run Details

Reproducibility Variable Result LLM Response
Research Type Theoretical We consider the design of mechanisms to elicit probabilistic forecasts when agents are strategic and may collude with one another. First, we present a novel strictly proper mechanism that does not admit arbitrage provided that the reports of the agents are bounded away from 0 and 1, a common assumption in many settings. Second, we discover strictly arbitrage-free mechanisms that satisfy an intermediate guarantee between weak and strict properness.
Researcher Affiliation Collaboration 1Microsoft Research, 2Carnegie Mellon University, 3CU Boulder
Pseudocode No The paper does not contain any structured pseudocode or algorithm blocks.
Open Source Code No The paper does not mention or provide access to any open-source code for the described methodology.
Open Datasets No The paper is theoretical and does not involve empirical experiments with datasets, thus no information on public datasets for training is provided.
Dataset Splits No The paper is theoretical and does not involve empirical experiments with datasets, thus no information on training/validation/test splits is provided.
Hardware Specification No The paper is theoretical and does not describe any experiments that would require specific hardware, thus no hardware specifications are provided.
Software Dependencies No The paper is theoretical and does not describe any experiments that would require specific software dependencies with version numbers.
Experiment Setup No The paper is theoretical and does not involve empirical experiments, thus no experimental setup details like hyperparameters or training settings are provided.